Developing Capacities for Forecasting and Planning Migration from Egypt

Every year approximately 750,000 new Egyptian workers join an already saturated labour market, many of which contribute to the already 3.6 million unemployed. Though efforts to develop the private sector and promote employment generation are ongoing, the absorption capacity will not be able to increase sufficiently in order to address this surplus in the foreseeable future. Conversely, the percentage of non-working above 65 years old in EU countries will nearly double to 52.6 per cent by 2060, indicating an “increasing burden to provide for social expenditure related to population aging.” Targeted education, vocational training, and migration policies can help Egypt create opportunities for its youth to access European labour markets, reducing pressure on the Egyptian economy while meeting the needs of Europe.

This pilot project aims to assist Egypt and potential receiving countries to agree on realistic forecasting methods of their respective labour migration needs in order to better plan for and maximise the potential of demand driven migration. It will do so by: 1) testing and deploying an effective and responsive methodology for producing forecasts on the need for migrant labour in European countries in order to inform policy development and curriculum planning in Egypt; 2) capacitating relevant officials in Egypt to produce forecasts of migratory and labour market trends for their own country as well as those of potential receiving countries; and 3) utilising the results of these activities to initiate a dialogue between Egypt and potential European partners regarding the forecasting model, the needs identified, and potential mutually beneficial labour migration schemes which would allow Egyptian labour migrants to meet these needs.